Mark Everett Hall

2015. That's the year IDC, Gartner, Forrester or some such tony market research company will reveal that by some metric--number of users, sales volume, whatever--software as a service surpassed on-premises licensed software. Yes, I know, 2015 is only six years away.

I'll grant you that a good portion of the SaaS success in 2015 will come in the form of the hybrid model, software + services. And a good portion of that will come from applications that tie iPhones, Blackberries, Pres and other smartphones to your PC. But the unambiguous meaning and trend is the same.

Software is moving to the cloud because most of it belongs there.

Software is touchy. It's precise. It's sensitive to changes in its environment. It needs the TLC only experts can provide. Most people don't qualify and are happy to hand over administration and management of software to IT professionals. Virtually every qualified reader of the print edition of Computerworld has a job because it would be irrational to let end users run their own critical business software.

Most people would be happy to give up the headaches of keeping track of software compatibility, malware updates, application patches, license management and everything else that goes with owning software. And when they hear about SaaS for the first time, I bet their eyes light up. And when they learn that those who are already using SaaS are extremely happy with their decision, up to 97% in one survey, the deal is all but done.

Add to the logic and satisfaction of SaaS will be the options people will have, especially by 2015. Today, ISVs are being advised to embrace the SaaS model in tough economic times. Indeed, ISVs are actively working on SaaS versions of their on-premises software, according to Relational Networks Inc. CEO Pankaj Malvyla, whose company just updated its Longjump platform as a service offering specifically to appeal to ISVs.

Who knows? Maybe I'm being too conservative with my prediction. Maybe I should bring it in a year.